Lok Sabha elections 2024: Final faceoff in South | India News
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NDA
To defend: 49 seats, including all 13 in Uttar Pradesh, 9 out of 11 in Maharashtra, all 8 in Madhya Pradesh, all 5 in Bihar, 4 out of 17 in Telangana, 3 out of 4 in Jharkhand, 3 out of 8 in West Bengal, 3 out of 25 in Andhra Pradesh and 1 out of 4 in Odisha.
Can look for gains in: Andhra, where TDP-BJP-JSP alliance would hope to do significantly better than the 3 seats TDP won last time, and Telangana, where the decline of BRS creates space for BJP to become the main opposition.
INDIA
To defend: 11 seats, including 5 out of 8 in West Bengal, 3 out of 17 in Telangana, 1 out of 4 in Jharkhand, 1 out of 4 in Odisha and 1 out of 11 in Maharashtra.
Can look for gains in: Maharashtra, where the shifting alliances have created a new political dynamic; Telangana, where Congress won assembly polls just months back; and Bihar where it has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Beyond NDA & INDIA: This phase has a significant presence of parties not aligned to other fronts. Unaligned parties won 35 of these seats last time. That includes the 22 seats won by YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, 9 won by BRS in Telangana, 2 won by BJD in Odisha and 2 by AIMIM, one each in Telangana and Maharashtra.
Not included in this break-up: The lone seat in Jammu & Kashmir polling today, which is not possible to categorise as having been won by any party last time since seat boundaries have been redrawn since 2019.
High-stakes battles to watch today
Telangana: All eyes will be on BJP and whether it betters its 2019 tally of 4 seats. The party has run a campaign led by the PM and sees Telangana as a possible second base in the south after Karnataka. The collapse of BRS has left a void, which BJP is keen to fill. Buoyed by its assembly polls win, Congress has run an energetic campaign led by CM Revanth Reddy, who has tried to blunt the Modi factor by saying BJP intends to change the Constitution and remove SC/ST/OBC quota. Revanth also needs a handsome return from the state’s 17 seats to cement his own position.
Andhra Pradesh: It’s one state, two polls here today, with bigger political focus on the assembly vote, as a close contest brews between Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP and Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, which is in alliance with BJP and Telugu film star Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena. The state has 25 LS seats and 175 assembly seats. In 2019, YSRCP demolished TDP, which was fighting on its own, winning 151 assembly and 22 LS seats. This time, the alliance could be a deciding factor in many seats, especially if the Kapu community, to which Kalyan belongs, backs it.
… & UP, Maha & West Bengal: For three of India’s most politically significant states, this is a phase that will play a deciding role in which way the pendulum swings come June 4. Each has its share of prestige fights for tall regional players who are INDIA bloc allies – Akhilesh Yadav in Samajwadi bastions in UP, Sharad Pawar in Marathwada, and Mamata Banerjee in her Bengal strongholds.
A look at union ministers & other heavyweights in the fray
Kannauj
2019 winner: BJP (Subrat Pathak)
Key contenders: Akhilesh Yadav (SP), Subrat Pathak (BJP), Imran bin Jafar (BSP)
This is a battle as personal as it is political for Akhilesh Yadav, in a constituency that was a family stronghold for 20 years till BJP wrested it in 2019. Kannauj is where Akhilesh first stepped into the electoral arena in 2000, winning a bypoll after it was vacated by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav, who had won the 1999 LS poll from two places and retained Mainpuri. Akhilesh went on to win two more terms from here before vacating it for his wife Dimple in 2012 when he became CM. This time, nephew Tej Pratap was initially fielded from here, but the Samajwadi Party boss decided to return to the place he has deep bonds with to tame the feisty Subrat Pathak, a Brahmin, who defeated Dimple in 2019 and has likened the current contest to an “India-Pakistan cricket match”.
Behrampore
2019 winner: Cong (Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury)
Key contenders: Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury (Cong), Yusuf Pathan (TMC), Nirmal Kumar Saha (BJP)
In a seat he has turned into a synonym, winning it five times, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury perhaps faces his toughest challenge. The opponent he must be worried about is not a seasoned politician, but debutant Yusuf Pathan, the cricketer known for hitting towering sixes. In a constituency with 51% Muslim voters, Pathan is the first heavyweight rival Chowdhury is facing who is Muslim. There’s a touch of irony as well because TMC, which is plotting to take him down, is an INDIA bloc partner nationally. Local doctor Nirmal Kumar Saha, for whom Yogi Adityanath has campaigned, will, meanwhile, hope to benefit from a possible split in the Muslim vote.
Begusarai
2019 winner: BJP (Giriraj Singh)
Key contenders: Giriraj Singh (BJP) and Awadhesh Kumar Rai (CPI)
A former Congress bastion that NDA has converted into a stronghold since JDU’s win in 2004, Union minister Giriraj Singh is aiming for a second straight term from here. The outspoken Singh defeated CPI’s Kanhaiya Kumar in 2019 in a contest that was followed nationally because of the fiery exchanges between the two. This time, the contest isn’t a triangular one like last time and Giriraj, a Bhumihar, faces one principal opponent in Grand Alliance candidate and three-time MLA Awadhesh Kumar Rai (CPI), which changes equations. The seat, located in central Bihar and famous as birthplace of poet Ramdhari Singh Dinkar, has a significant Bhumihar vote.
Kadapa
2019 winner: YSRCP (YS Avinash Reddy)
Key contenders: YS Avinash Reddy (YSRCP), YS Sharmila Reddy (Cong), Chadipiralla Bhupesh Subbarami Reddy (TDP)
Andhra Pradesh Congress chief YS Sharmila takes on her cousin YS Avinash Reddy, the faceoff escalating the feud in the YSR family. Sharmila merged her YSR Telangana party into Congress and was subsequently appointed Andhra Congress chief. In recent months, she has been vocal against CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, who is her elder brother. With Sharmila as its face, Congress is looking to upstage YSRCP here, the pieces now very differently arranged from the 2019 contest when Sharmila had extended her full support to YSRCP. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP has a traditional vote bank in the constituency, making it an absorbing triangular fight.
Krishnanagar
2019 winner: TMC (Mahua Moitra)
Key contenders: Mahua Moitra (TMC), Amrita Roy (BJP), SM Saadi (CPM)
The feud between BJP and TMC in the ‘cash-for-query’ row over which Mahua Moitra was expelled from Parliament in the backdrop, this is a fiery match between the two parties with CPM (INDIA bloc) in the third corner. BJP has fielded ‘Ranima’ Amrita Roy, a descendant of Maharaja Krishnachandra Roy, after whom Krishnanagar is named. Mahua’s expulsion has given TMC a rallying point while the Roy family, known to everyone here, is out on the streets canvassing for ‘Ranima’. TMC has gone back to history to target the family, turning Krishnachandra ‘conniving with Robert Clive’ in the Battle of Plassey into campaign discourse. Krishnanagar has a strong BJP base but TMC holds six of the seven assembly segments.
Hyderabad
2019 winner: AIMIM (Asaduddin Owaisi)
Key contenders:Asaduddin Owaisi (AIMIM), K Madhavi Latha (BJP)
An AIMIM fortress, the Asaduddin Owaisi-led party has not lost this seat for 40 years. Though Congress and BRS have been fielding candidates from here, Hyderabad had largely been a friendly fight with parties in office taking direct or indirect support of AIMIM to get Muslim votes in other constituencies of the state. Like in recent elections, the main contest is between Owaisi and BJP. Leading the saffron challenge is debutant Kompella Madhavi Latha. While BJP has talked up her chances, AIMIM has set a target of bettering Owaisi’s 2019 victory margin of 2.8 lakh votes.
Khunti
2019 winner: BJP (Arjun Munda)
Key contenders: Arjun Munda (BJP) and Kalicharan Munda (Cong)
Arjun Munda scraped through last time by a margin of 1,445 votes. This time, the contest is tougher in this Jharkhand constituency where the 2017-18 Pathalgarhi movement, asserting tribal governance and implementation of the fifth schedule of the Constitution, originated. Khunti is also birthplace of freedom fighter Birsa Munda. Arjun Munda, the Union agriculture and tribal affairs minister, is once again taking on Kalicharan Munda of Congress, but the entry of Pathalgarhi movement protagonist Babita Kachchap on a Bharat Adivasi Party ticket has led to a recast of the poll arithmetic.
Secunderabad
2019 winner: BJP (G Kishan Reddy)
Key contenders: G Kishan Reddy (BJP), Danam Nagender (Cong), T Padma Rao Goud (BRS)
Seen as BJP’s only stronghold in Telangana, Secunderabad will see a direct contest between incumbent MP, Union tourism minister and state BJP chief G Kishan Reddy and local Congress MLA Danam Nagender. T Padama Rao Goud, the soft-spoken former deputy speaker, is the BRS candidate. BJP, which also won this seat in 2014, is expecting a hat-trick, banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal. But Nagender is a seasoned campaigner and Congress is upbeat about its chances.
Big bouts of Phase 4
Rajahmundry
2019 WINNER: YSRCP (Margani Bharath)
KEY CONTENDERS: Daggubati Purandeswari (BJP), Guduri Srinivas (YSRCP), Gidugu Rudra Raju (Cong)
Andhra Pradesh BJP chief and former Visakhapatnam MP Daggubati Purandeswari has entered the Lok Sabha election fray from Rajahmundry — a constituency BJP has won twice and sees itself regaining. Incumbent Margani Bharath has been nominated by YSRCP for assembly polls, prompting the party to pick Dr Guduri Srinivas, a noted pulmonologist, as its LS candidate. It has all the trappings of a close contest with the trio of heavyweights battling it out. BJP is eyeing a boost from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in the constituency, which has lifted its cadre. A coastal area with urban and rural segments, development is an issue that reverberates here.
Ongole
2019 WINNER: YSRCP (Magunta Sreenivasulu Reddy)
KEY CONTENDERS: Magunta Sreenivasulu Reddy (TDP), Chevireddy Bhaskar Reddy (YSRCP)
Sitting MP Magunta Sreenivasulu Reddy, who won the 2019 election on a YSRCP ticket, switched to TDP and was declared the party’s candidate. A four-time MP from Ongole, 70-year-old Reddy brings five decades of political experience to the table. YSRCP has nominated Chandragiri MLA Chevireddy Bhaskar Reddy, considered a troubleshooter by the party. MS Reddy, and Ongole by turn, have generated considerable interest, given that his son Raghav is an accused-turned-approver in the Delhi liquor policy case in which Arvind Kejriwal was arrested by ED.
Kheri
2019 WINNER: BJP (Ajay Kumar Mishra Teni)
KEY CONTENDERS: Ajay Kumar Mishra Teni (BJP), Utkarsh Verma (SP), Anshay Kalra (BSP)
The constituency in the Terai belt is known for its wheat and cane growers. On Oct 3, 2021, four protesting farmers and a journalist were run over by an SUV driven by MP Ajay Mishra Teni’s son Ashish, and three persons accompanying Ashish were lynched. Teni, then junior home minister, wasn’t dropped from govt, with support for him seemingly unwavering. He is now hopeful of a hat-trick. SP, which lost its influential Kurmi family of Vermas (Ravi Prakash Verma) to Congress, has fielded another Kurmi, in two-time MLA Utkarsh Verma. The constituency has 18% Kurmis and 16% Brahmins. BSP has fielded realtor Anshay Kalra, a Punjabi.
Asansol
2019 WINNER: BJP (After Babul Supriyo’s defection, TMC’s Shatrughan Sinha won in 2022 bypoll)
KEY CONTENDERS: Shatrughan Sinha (TMC), SS Ahluwalia (BJP), Jahanara Khan (CPM)
With Shatrughan Sinha, TMC debuted in Asansol in the 2022 bypolls and won by a 3-lakh margin. It also won five of seven assembly segments here in 2021. BJP floundered with its initial candidate pick in Bhojpuri singer Pawan Singh, who was panned for misogynist songs. The party replaced him with veteran SS Ahluwalia. Asansol is Ahluwalia’s home, but the two polls he won were in Darjeeling (2014) and Bardhaman-Durgapur (2019). The region is demographically diverse and shares most of its borders with Dhanbad.
Munger
2019 WINNER: JDU (Rajiv Ranjan alias Lalan Singh)
KEY CONTENDERS: Rajiv Ranjan alias Lalan Singh (JDU) and Anita Devi (RJD)
Two political titans — RJD president Lalu Prasad and JDU chief and CM Nitish Kumar — are indirectly locked in battle here. JDU’s Rajiv Ranjan alias Lalan Singh is considered close to Nitish and RJD’s pick was decided after Lalu’s intervention. This seat was once a Congress stronghold, but it has not elected an MP from the party for three decades. Lalan Singh finds the going tough after RJD gave a ticket to the wife of Nawada jailbreak convict Ashok Mahto. The don got married just ahead of the polls to get a ticket, as advised by Lalu. Lalan has faced mainly women rivals here. In 2014, he was defeated by LJP’s Veena Devi, wife of another don Suryabhan Singh, and in 2019, he defeated Nilam Devi, wife of don Anant Singh. Another don’s wife Anita
Devi is in the fray this time.
Samastipur
2019 WINNER: LJP (Prince Raj)
KEY CONTENDERS: Shambhavi Choudhary (LJP-RV) and Sunny Hazari (Cong)
Located in north Bihar, Samastipur is the birthplace of socialist icon and former CM Karpoori Thakur, who was posthumously awarded the country’s highest civilian honour, Bharat Ratna, earlier this year by the Modi govt. Children of two heavyweight JDU ministers are locked in a straight fight from different parties. LJP (Ram Vilas), led by Chirag Paswan, has fielded LSR and Delhi School of Economics graduate Shambhavi Choudhary, daughter of rural works department minister Ashok Choudhary. Congress has given a ticket to Sunny Hazari, son of information and PR minister Maheshwar Hazari. Both are contesting Lok Sabha polls for the first time. Spread over six assembly segments—four from Samastipur and two from Darbhanga district, this constituency has not elected a Congress candidate since 1977, when Thakur won. In the last LS poll, LJP candidate Prince Raj defeated Congress’s Ashok Kumar by more than one lakh votes, but the contest this time may be more challenging.
Ahmednagar
2019 Winner: BJP (Sujay Vikhe Patil)
Key contenders: Sujay Vikhe Patil (BJP), Nilesh Lanke NCP (SCP)
This central Maharashtra seat has been a battleground between the Vikhe Patil family and Sharad Pawar. The split in NCP has sharpened the contest. Sujay, a thirdgeneration Vikhe Patil, is making a bid to retain the seat. Sharad Pawar has picked his nephew’s supporter and a popular MLA, who is a local, as his candidate. Lanke was with Ajit Pawar and keen on a ticket but was upset when the seat was again given to BJP, which is an ally of Ajit-led NCP. A close contest is expected with Sharad Pawar and his grand-nephew Rohit Pawar throwing their weight behind Lanke.
Chevella
2019 Winner: BRS (G Ranjith Reddy)
Key contenders: G Ranjith Reddy (Cong), Konda Vishveshwar Reddy (BJP)
Two of the richest politicians are pitted against each other from here. Konda Vishveshwar Reddy of BJP had won this seat in 2014 on a BRS ticket. He later joined Congress and lost the seat to Ranjith Reddy of BRS. Now, incumbent MP Ranjith is contesting on a Congress ticket. The constituency subsumes parts of the IT corridor of the city, some upmarket localities of Greater Hyderabad and the outskirts. KV Reddy, who declared assets worth Rs 4,568 crore, is banking on PM Modi’s charisma. Ranjith Reddy, who declared Rs 435 crore of assets, is confident of winning the seat due to what he says is “good performance” of the new Congress govt within 100 days of coming to office in the state. Kasani Gnaneshwar Mudiraj of BRS, who declared assets worth Rs 228 crore, will make it a three-horse race.
Karimnagar
2019 Winner: BJP (Bandi Sanjay Kumar)
Key contenders: Bandi Sanjay Kumar (BJP), Velichala Rajender Rao (Cong), B Vinod Kumar (BRS)
BJP’s national general secretary Bandi Sanjay is facing BRS candidate and former MP B Vinod Kumar, and Congress’s Velichala Rajender Rao here. Vinod Kumar served as Telangana planning board vice-chairman and was actively involved in the statehood agitation. He is known to be close to BRS chief K Chandrashekar Rao. He won this seat in 2014, when Telangana was formed, but lost the next election to Bandi Sanjay. This time, Congress was unable to select a candidate till the last minute, and picked Velichala Rajender, a district functionary, just ahead of the deadline. Karimnagar is Telangana’s cultural hub and was a hotbed of the statehood movement.
Unnao
2019 Winner: BJP (Sakshi Maharaj)
Key contenders: Sakshi Maharaj (BJP), Annu Tandon (Cong), Ashok Kumar Pandey (BSP)
Mercurial Sakshi Maharaj is eyeing a hat-trick from this constituency sandwiched between Lucknow and Kanpur. Like former CM Kalyan, Sakshi too is a Lodh, an influential OBC sub-caste in central UP. Confident of victory, he has been belting out his slogan, “Dhailakh Lodhi, baaki saare Modi (there are 2.5 lakh Lodhs, rest all are Modi supporters)”. But INDIA bloc’s Annu Tandon has put up a challenge. A former corporate hand, she made a resounding debut from the seat as a Congress candidate in 2009, defeating SP strongman Aruna Shankar Anna by over three lakh votes. But she finished fourth in 2014 and third in 2019.
Etawah
2019 Winner: BJP (Ram Shankar Katheria)
Key contenders: Ram Shankar Katheria (BJP), Jitendra Dohare (SP), Sarika Singh Baghel (BSP)
The ‘karmabhoomi’ of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav, the constituency was reserved for SCs in 2009. BJP has won two out of three elections after that and is eyeing another win through its prominent Dalit face Ram Shankar Katheria. From Etawah, Katheria, who has his roots in RSS and is a professor at Agra University, is eyeing his fourth term as an MP. He won from Etawah in 2019, and Agra in 2014 and 2009. SP has fielded Jitendra Dohare and BSP is banking on former MP Sarika Singh Baghel to make it a strong contest. Baghel had won from Hathras on an RLD ticket in 2009 to become one of the youngest MPs that year. She later moved to SP and then to BJP. She joined BSP recently. Dohare, a Jatav like Katheria and Baghel, started his political career from BSP in 2005 and joined SP in 2020. Dalits, Yadavs and Lodhs make up the biggest chunks of the local population.
Bardhaman-Durgapur
2019 Winner: BJP (SS Ahluwalia)
Key contenders: Kirti Azad (TMC), Dilip Ghosh (BJP), Sukriti Ghosh (CPM)
If Trinamool pitchforked Kirti Azad as its party candidate here, BJP packed a bigger surprise by asking Dilip Ghosh, its former state president, to vacate Midnapore Lok Sabha seat and fight from Bardhaman-Durgapur. Sitting BJP MP SS Ahluwalia was asked to contest in Asansol. Since 2009, (when this seat was carved out), no party has won from here twice in a row. But Ghosh does not believe in precedence, neither does Azad, as they slog in the rice bowl to rewrite their political careers. On the face of it, TMC is well entrenched here; it won six of the seven assembly seats. But Ghosh, who had made his debut in 2016 by defeating six-time Congress MLA Gyan Singh Sohanpal in Kharagpur, is known to pull off upsets.
Singhbhum
2019 Winner: Cong (Geeta Koda)
Key contenders: Geeta Koda (BJP) and Joba Majhi (JMM)
Consisting of six STreserved assembly segments, Singhbhum LS seat has swung between Congress and BJP. This time, it’s a BJP-JMM battle as INDIA bloc has fielded Joba Majhi against Congress turncoat Geeta Koda. The constituency includes Asia’s largest saal forest where iron-ore mining and ecological damage have been key concerns. Mines in Saranda form the backbone of SAIL and Tata Steel but this region struggles with abject poverty. Geeta Koda’s husband Madhu Koda has worked with the local population and is confident of converting support for him into votes for his wife. Campaigning was difficult here as Maoists made the region one of their bases.
Beed
2019 Winner: BJP (Pritam Munde)
KEY CONTENDERS: Pankaja Munde (BJP), Bajrang Sonawane (NCP-SCP)
It is a comeback opportunity for Pankaja Munde, who lost the 2019 assembly election to her cousin Dhananjay Munde and has felt sidelined in BJP. Pankaja’s sister Pritam was elected to Parliament by the highest-ever margin of nearly seven lakh votes in the 2014 bypoll after her father Gopinath Munde’s death. She was reelected in 2019. This election, with Pritam sittting out, Pankaja will face the opponent her sister defeated in the last election. Sonawane, who switched from Ajit Pawar’s camp to Sharad Pawar’s group, has considerable groundwork to his credit.
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